Every PE firm, search fund, and roll-up operator asks the same question: where should I look for HVAC acquisition targets?
Most answer with gut instinct — Texas, Florida, maybe California. But our signal intelligence, built on 2,300+ tracked HVAC operators across 46 states, tells a more nuanced story.
Here are the real rankings.
The Top 15 States by Tracked HVAC Operators
| Rank | State | Operators Tracked | All Scoring 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 43 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alabama | 46 | ✓ |
| 3 | Georgia | 49 | ✓ |
| 4 | South Carolina | 36 | ✓ |
| 5 | Virginia | 35 | ✓ |
| 6 | Louisiana | 35 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mississippi | 34 | ✓ |
| 8 | Tennessee | 32 | ✓ |
| 9 | North Carolina | 31 | ✓ |
| 10 | Kentucky | 30 | ✓ |
| 11 | Maryland | 29 | ✓ |
| 12 | Ohio | 29 | ✓ |
| 13 | Arizona | 27 | ✓ |
| 14 | Arkansas | 27 | ✓ |
| 15 | California | 26 | ✓ |
The surprise: the Southeast dominates. Five of the top seven states are in the Deep South, a region that combines year-round cooling demand, fragmented ownership, and operators who've been serving the same communities for decades.
Why the Southeast Leads
Climate = Demand
States with humid subtropical or tropical climates generate higher per-capita HVAC revenue. Air conditioning isn't a luxury in Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana — it's a necessity 8-10 months of the year. This translates to:
- Shorter system replacement cycles
- Higher emergency call volumes
- Stronger recurring revenue from maintenance plans
Fragmentation = Opportunity
The Southeast has the highest concentration of independent, single-location HVAC operators in the country. These aren't franchise operations or corporate-owned branches — they're owner-operators, often second or third generation, running businesses that generate $1-5M in revenue with 15-30% EBITDA margins.
Lower Multiples (For Now)
While Texas and Florida command 5-7x EBITDA in competitive processes, operators in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Kentucky can still be acquired at 3-5x. The arbitrage between Southeast acquisition multiples and national platform valuations is one of the most attractive dynamics in home services M&A.
State-by-State Highlights
The Big Three (40+ Operators)
Georgia (49): Deepest bench in the Southeast, with strong clusters in Metro Atlanta, Middle Georgia, and the coastal corridor. Read our full Georgia analysis.
Alabama (46): Surprisingly dense operator count. Birmingham, Huntsville, and Mobile anchor the market, with rural independents filling the gaps.
Florida (43): The obvious choice, and for good reason. Year-round demand, population growth, and deep metro coverage. See our Florida deep dive.
The Strong Middle (30-39 Operators)
South Carolina (36): Charleston, Greenville, and Columbia form a triangle of acquisition activity. Post-hurricane rebuild cycles add replacement demand.
Virginia (35): Northern Virginia's affluent suburbs plus Hampton Roads' military market create two distinct acquisition lanes.
Louisiana (35): Extreme heat, minimal PE competition, and operators accustomed to emergency response — an underrated market.
Mississippi (34): The ultimate contrarian play. Dense operator count, minimal buyer competition, and strong fundamentals.
Tennessee (32): Nashville's growth story is well-known, but Memphis and Knoxville harbor quality targets at lower multiples.
North Carolina (31): Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are among the fastest-growing metros in the US. The HVAC pipeline follows the population.
Kentucky (30): Louisville and Lexington anchor the market, with strong independents across the Bluegrass.
Notable Mentions
Texas (26): Lower count than expected, but the operators we track are concentrated in the state's highest-value metros: DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio. See our Texas analysis.
Ohio (29): A surprise entry in the top 15. Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, and Dayton provide four distinct metro markets with four-season demand.
Arizona (27): Extreme heat creates Florida-like demand dynamics in a market with strong population growth and less PE competition.
What's Missing: States With Thin Coverage
Some large-population states have fewer tracked operators than you'd expect:
- New York (10): Heavy HVAC presence but dominated by commercial operators and union shops, which filter differently
- Washington (10): Concentrated in Seattle metro with limited rural coverage
- Wisconsin (7), Iowa (7): Seasonal markets with shorter peak demand windows
This doesn't mean these states lack opportunity — it means the acquisition-ready signal profile is less common there. Operators in these markets tend to be seasonal, diversified into other trades, or structurally different from the classic HVAC acquisition target.
How to Use This Data
State-level counts are a starting point, not a strategy. The real value comes from the operator-level detail: who scores highest, what signals are active, and which companies match your specific thesis.
Whether you're building a Southeast platform, looking for bolt-ons in Florida, or exploring contrarian plays in Mississippi, the intelligence exists.