Today we're announcing the full nationwide expansion of HVAC Signals. What started as a Texas-focused intelligence tool now covers 2,300+ HVAC operators across 46 states — making it the most comprehensive signal-based acquisition intelligence platform for the HVAC industry.

What We've Built

HVAC Signals is an acquisition intelligence platform purpose-built for PE firms, search funds, and roll-up operators targeting the HVAC vertical.

The core product: State and metro-level intelligence reports that score, rank, and profile HVAC operators based on publicly observable signals. Each report includes:

  • Ranked target lists with proprietary fit scores (0-100)
  • Signal summaries covering website activity, hiring patterns, expansion language, and ownership indicators
  • Evidence-backed rationale for why each company appears on the list
  • Risk flags highlighting potential concerns
  • Outreach prep notes with contact paths and conversation starters

No cold lists. No broker spam. Just scored intelligence with clear evidence.

The Numbers

Metric Value
Total operators tracked 2,300+
States with coverage 46
States with 25+ operators 17
Operators scoring 60+ on fit 2,300+
Signal dimensions per company 15+
Data freshness Updated continuously

Coverage by Region

Southeast (largest concentration): Georgia (49), Alabama (46), Florida (43), South Carolina (36), Virginia (35), Louisiana (35), Mississippi (34), Tennessee (32), North Carolina (31), Kentucky (30)

South Central: Maryland (29), Arkansas (27), Texas (26), Oklahoma (22)

Midwest: Ohio (29), Indiana (25), Kansas (23), Michigan (22), Illinois (20), Missouri (18), Minnesota (10)

West: Arizona (27), California (26), Colorado (20), New Mexico (20), Nevada (17), Oregon (16), Utah (14), Washington (10)

Northeast: Pennsylvania (14), New Jersey (13), Connecticut (12), West Virginia (12), Delaware (11), Massachusetts (10), New York (10)

Why Signal-Based Intelligence

The HVAC acquisition market is getting more competitive. Capstone Partners reported 77 transactions in H1 2025, with PE add-ons up 88.2% year-over-year. More buyers are chasing the same targets, and the winners are the ones who find opportunities first.

Traditional approaches — broker networks, cold call campaigns, industry databases — are backward-looking. They tell you who's officially on the market. They don't tell you who's about to be.

HVAC Signals fills that gap by monitoring forward-looking operating signals: website changes, hiring patterns, expansion language, ownership indicators, and digital presence shifts. These signals, scored and ranked by our proprietary model, help buyers identify targets before the competition — and at better multiples.

How Buyers Use HVAC Signals

PE Firms: Build a Target Pipeline

Use our state-level reports to identify scored targets in your geographic focus areas. Layer in your investment criteria — revenue range, service mix, geographic density — and you have a prioritized pipeline in days, not months.

Search Funds: Find Your Acquisition

Searchers need efficiency. Our scored rankings help you focus your limited outreach time on the highest-fit targets, with evidence-backed context that makes your cold outreach warmer and more effective.

Roll-Up Operators: Identify Tuck-Ins

If you already own an HVAC platform, our data helps you find add-on acquisitions in adjacent markets. Filter by geography, score threshold, and signal profile to identify operators that fit your integration playbook.

Brokers and Advisors: Validate Opportunities

If you represent HVAC sellers, our intelligence provides market context — how does your client compare to other operators in the state? What's the competitive landscape for potential buyers?

What Makes Our Data Different

Signal-based, not directory-based. We don't scrape Yellow Pages and call it intelligence. Every company in our database is scored on 15+ signal dimensions derived from their actual operating footprint.

Evidence-backed. Every score comes with evidence points — specific observations that support the ranking. Buyers can see exactly why a company scored the way it did.

Continuously updated. We monitor signals on an ongoing basis. Scores change as companies evolve, ensuring the intelligence stays current.

Acquisition-focused. Our scoring model is specifically designed for M&A — not for general business directories, not for lead generation, not for anything other than helping buyers find the right HVAC acquisition targets.

What's Next

We're continuing to expand coverage and deepen our signal analysis:

  • Company-level refresh cadence — more frequent signal updates for top-scoring operators
  • Buyer watchlists — automated alerts when tracked companies show significant signal changes
  • Metro-level reports — granular intelligence for specific metros like DFW, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay
  • Custom scoring overlays — the ability to adjust scoring weights based on your specific investment thesis

Get Started

The intelligence is ready. Whether you're building a national pipeline or evaluating a single market, HVAC Signals delivers the acquisition-grade data you need.

View a Sample Report →

Request Intelligence for Your Market →


HVAC Signals is built by Alex Iarosenco. Questions, feedback, or partnership inquiries: use the contact form on our homepage.